RSS Feed items
GDP: 3 Years of Massive Downward Revisions; Inventory Adjustments Run their Course; Where to From Here? Fed's Counterproductive Policies
The BEA has finally admitted something anyone with a modicum of common sense already knew: The recession was far deeper and the "recovery" far weaker than previously reported.
Please consider BEA report Gross Domestic Product: Second Quarter 2010 (Advance Estimate) Revised Estimates: 2007 through First Quarter 2010
Real gross domestic product -- the output of goods and services produced by labor and property located in the United States -- increased at an annual rate of 2.4 percent in the second quarter of 2010, (that is, from the first quarter to the second quarter), according to the "advance" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the first quarter, real GDP increased 3.7 percent.
The real story in the report was not the continuing ratcheting down of GDP forward estimates, but rather massive backward revisions, most of them negative, dating back three full years.
Revision Lowlights
- Login or register to post comments
- Read more
- Feed: Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis
- Original article
Should China Dump Dollars for Commodities? What about the "Nuclear Option" of Dumping Treasuries? Can Global Trade Collapse?
Every time there is a little blip by China in its purchasing or holding of US treasuries, hyperinflationists come out of the woodwork ranting about the "Nuclear Option" of China dumping treasuries en masse.
Such fears are extremely overblown for several reasons.
1. China's purchasing of US assets is primarily a balance of trade issue. If the US runs a trade deficit, some other countries ruin a trade surplus and thus accumulate dollars. This is purely a mathematical function as I have pointed out many times.
2. If China dumps treasuries for Euro-based assets, oil-based assets, yen-based assets or for that matter anything other than dollar based assets, the problem merely shifts elsewhere and those buyers would have to do something with the dollars such as buying US treasuries or other US assets. This too is purely a mathematical function.
3. If China dumped treasuries it would tend the strengthen the RMB and China has been extremely reluctant to let the RMB appreciate. Indeed, the US is begging China to revalue the RMB upward, but China resists.
- Login or register to post comments
- Read more
- Feed: Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis
- Original article
Will the "Tiny House" Movement Catch On?
Dee Williams, who lives in a simple but stylish 84 square-foot home has started a company to help other people build their own mini-homes. It's all part of the "tiny house" movement, a trend becoming more popular as people look for ways to save money, help the environment and simplify their lives.
Think this will this catch on? I don't, at least in a big way. 84 square foot homes (or even 250) are simply too extreme. However, tiny homes are just a small part of a major and growing trend towards frugality and downsizing in general.
- Login or register to post comments
- Read more
- Feed: Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis
- Original article
Housing Bubble will Not be Reblown; Foreclosures Increase in 154 of 206 Metro Areas with Population Over 200,000
It's been one hell of a non-recovery in housing, smack in the face of now-expiring $8,000 home tax credits that have proven to be as stimulative and futile as attacking fire ants with a BB-Gun.
Please consider Foreclosure Filings Rise in 75% of U.S. Metro Areas
Foreclosure filings climbed in three-quarters of U.S. metropolitan areas in the first half as high unemployment left many homeowners unable to pay their mortgages, according to RealtyTrac Inc.
The number of properties receiving a filing more than doubled from a year earlier in Baltimore, Oklahoma City and Albuquerque, New Mexico, the mortgage-data company said today in a report. Notices of default, auction or bank seizure rose more than 50 percent in areas including Salt Lake City; Savannah, Georgia; and Atlantic City, New Jersey.
- Login or register to post comments
- Read more
- Feed: Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis
- Original article
Housing Bubble will Not be Reblown; Foreclosures Increase in 154 of 206 Metro Areas with Population Over 200,000
It's been one hell of a non-recovery in housing, smack in the face of now-expiring $8,000 home tax credits that have proven to be as stimulative and futile as attacking fire ants with a BB-Gun.
Please consider Foreclosure Filings Rise in 75% of U.S. Metro Areas
Foreclosure filings climbed in three-quarters of U.S. metropolitan areas in the first half as high unemployment left many homeowners unable to pay their mortgages, according to RealtyTrac Inc.
The number of properties receiving a filing more than doubled from a year earlier in Baltimore, Oklahoma City and Albuquerque, New Mexico, the mortgage-data company said today in a report. Notices of default, auction or bank seizure rose more than 50 percent in areas including Salt Lake City; Savannah, Georgia; and Atlantic City, New Jersey.
- Login or register to post comments
- Read more
- Feed: Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis
- Original article
California Approaches "Fiscal Meltdown"; Schwarzenegger Declares Fiscal Emergency; Fort Worth Texas Ponders Scrapping Defined Benefit Pension Plans
Governor Schwarzenegger has once again furloughed workers, declaring California is in a fiscal emergency. Excuse me for asking but when has California ever not been in a state of fiscal emergency?
Bloomberg reports Schwarzenegger Orders Furloughs Amid California Budget Impasse
California Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger ordered more than 150,000 state workers to take three days of mandatory unpaid time off to conserve cash.
The executive order, effective Aug. 1, stipulates that the furloughs will end when a budget for the fiscal year that began July 1 is enacted, the governor’s press secretary, Aaron McLear, said in an e-mail. It comes after government workers endured furloughs over almost 12 months that ended June 30.
California began its fiscal year without a spending plan after Schwarzenegger and Democrats remained deadlocked over how to fill a $19.1 billion deficit. Controller John Chiang has warned he may again need to issue IOUs to pay bills if the impasse continues into September.
- Login or register to post comments
- Read more
- Feed: Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis
- Original article
Email from FedUpUSA regarding Afghanistan
In response to Afghanistan is a "Lost Cause"; Leaked Documents Show Futility of Afghanistan War I received an email from Stephanie Jasky, founder of FedUpUSA.org. Her son is currently in Afghanistan. Stephanie writes ....
Hello Mish,
Just wanted to say thanks for the balanced and objective view on Afghanistan. My son is on the front lines with the 101st Airborne (Infantry). He’s been there since the first week in May.
The things I could tell you would make your hair stand on end. What civilian leadership, with some complicity of military leadership is doing to our young men and women is repulsive.
The war is getting a little more coverage in the media now, but for a while there, it looked like all these fine men and women would be led to their deaths and no one would even know.
It has been hard as a parent (and there are MANY of us) not able to speak up. Most people have no idea what it is like to live 24/7 being terrified of the doorbell ringing.
- Login or register to post comments
- Read more
- Feed: Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis
- Original article
Bill Gross Ponders "Deep Demographic Doo-Doo"
Bill Gross usually writes an interesting column provided you skip over the first few paragraphs of introduction. His August Investment Outlook regarding population demographics is no different. Please consider Private Eyes.
Our modern era of capitalism over the past several centuries has never known a period of time in which population declined or grew less than 1% a year. Currently, the globe is adding over 77 million people a year at a pace of 1.15% annually, but slowing.
- Login or register to post comments
- Read more
- Feed: Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis
- Original article
Durable Goods Orders "Unexpectedly" Sink; How did Economists Blow the Call?
I cannot help but laugh at economists who refuse to see the economy is slowing dramatically, and somehow think manufacturing is going to lead the way to recovery.
Check out this headline on Bloomberg prior to the durable goods report: Orders for Durable Goods in U.S. Probably Rebounded in June
July 28 (Bloomberg) -- Orders for durable goods probably increased in June for the sixth time in the past seven months, showing business spending is supporting the U.S. recovery, economists said before a report today.
Bookings for goods meant to last at least three years rose 1 percent after dropping 0.6 percent in May, according to the median of 76 projections in a Bloomberg News survey. Excluding transportation gear, orders may have grown 0.4 percent.
“Business spending, particularly for capital equipment, is holding up,” said Ken Mayland, president of ClearView Economics LLC in Pepper Pike, Ohio. “Ordering is strong as companies ramp up and resupply.”
- Login or register to post comments
- Read more
- Feed: Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis
- Original article
Billboard Battle in Michigan - Police Scare Tactics
The police union in Bay Michigan has resorted to scare tactics threatening more violence and masked terrorists if the city suspends a handful of police officers.
Please consider Billboard Protest of Police Layoffs in Michigan Fuels Public Safety Debate
Police officers in Bay City, Mich., are being called domestic terrorists after renting billboard space to trumpet that the layoffs of five police officers in the town could lead to more shootings, stabbings, robberies and beatings.
The police say they paid for the two billboards that went up last week to bring attention to the impasse in negotiations between its union and city officials, who are seeking a 10.8 percent reduction in labor costs from eight unions to tackle a $1.66 million budget deficit for the fiscal year that began July 1. The billboards also spotlight the city's decision to replace the roof on city hall for $1.6 million.
- Login or register to post comments
- Read more
- Feed: Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis
- Original article


